S&P 500 jumps as regional banks rebound: Live updates

The standard deviation of component-level returns in Monday’s session saw the highest volatility in the market since the Covid vaccine was introduced, according to SIG Susquehanna.

Despite the S&P 500 finishing down just 0.15% Monday, it was a volatile session that whipsawed the index throughout the day. The last time the standard deviation on component returns on the S&P 500 was as high was on Nov. 9, 2020, said SIG analyst Christopher Jacobson. That was a session where investors moved out of technology and into cyclical stocks on the back of news of a Covid vaccine.

Jacobson said that rising skittishness was also reflected in the nearly 7% rise in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s preferred gauge of fear in the market, on Monday. The VIX hit levels not seen since late 2020 during the session.

“While the S&P finished yesterday nearly unchanged, there was a significant amount of volatility under the surface as contagion fears continued to drive meaningful dispersion at the sector/stock level,” Jacobson said in a Tuesday note to clients.

— Alex Harring

Oil prices dropped to a 5-week low on Tuesday as the Silicon Valley Bank crash fuels fears about a financial crisis that could reduce future oil demand. 

Brent futures were down $2.12, or 2.62%, to $78.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.09, or 2.79%, to $72.71. That leaves Brent on track for its lowest close since February 3 and WTI on track for its lowest close since February 22.

— Pia Singh

The strong rally for regional banks on Tuesday was losing some steam in afternoon trading.

Shares of First Republic were last up 34% when they were halted. The bank’s credit rating from S&P Global was placed on CreditWatch with negative implications on Tuesday, the ratings firm said.

Meanwhile, shares of Zions Bancorp gave up all of their gains and turned negative for the day. The SPDR Regional Bank ETF (KRE) was last up only about 2%.

All 11 sectors of stocks within the S&P 500 were trading up Tuesday, powering a broad rally for the index.

Communication services led the way with a 2.5% advance, followed by information technology at 2.3%.

On the other end of the spectrum, health care was the worst performer of the 11 sectors, but was still up 0.4%.

— Alex Harring

These stocks are among those making the biggest moves in midday trading:

• BuzzFeed — Share of the internet media company lost about 10% on a weak first-quarter revenue outlook. Buzzfeed expects first-quarter revenue of $61-$67 million, compared to expectations of $83.6 million, according to FactSet. The company beat sales expectations in its fourth quarter results.
• Meta Platforms — Meta shares gained 6% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Tuesday the social media company plans to cut 10,000 employees. The announcement comes just months after the tech giant announced layoffs off more than 11,000 employees in November.
• First Republic, PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp, Comerica — Regional banks rallied sharply Tuesday after being hit hard last Friday and Monday. Shares of San Francisco-based First Republic rose about 50%, while PacWest jumped more than 60% and Western Alliance Bancorp gained more than 40%. Comerica, KeyCorp and Zions Bancorp all climbed more than 10%. 

Click here to see more stocks making midday moves.

— Pia Singh

Barclays said it’s “swiping right” on Match, viewing it now as a value stock. 

Match shares were up more than 7% after Barclays upgraded shares from equal weight to overweight.

“We believe MTCH has effectively transitioned from an Internet growth stock over the past few years to now a value stock due to its high-margin profile and strong cash flow generation,” analyst Mario Lu wrote in a client note on Tuesday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about his upgrade here.

KeyCorp CEO Chris Gorman said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that his bank has not seen significant deposit outflows in recent days and is actually getting more cash from some customers.

“We really have not. We’re obviously watching our deposit outflows carefully. In fact over the weekend we had our biggest deposit growth from our retail business that we’ve had year to date. So we’ve been really pleased with the stableness of our deposits,” Gorman said.

Shares of KeyCorp were up 14% in midday trading.

— Jesse Pound

The Nasdaq Composite rallied more than 2% on Tuesday to trade back above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

If they hold, those levels could serve as support for the tech-heavy index.

— Fred Imbert, Gina Francolla

The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department are investigating how Silicon Valley Bank became the second largest bank failure in U.S. history, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The probes, which are separate and in preliminary phases, include looking into stock sales that SVB executives’ conducted ahead of the tech-focused bank’s collapse, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The SEC and Justice Department did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

— Yun Li

Moody’s Investors Service moved its view on the U.S. banking system to negative from stable on Monday, citing a “rapidly deteriorating operating environment.”

The move comes as the sectors reels following the closure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Banking stocks have mounted a comeback Tuesday after sliding over the past few sessions as concerns of contagion from the closures swirled.

“We have changed to negative from stable our outlook on the US banking system to reflect the rapid deterioration in the operating environment following deposit runs at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank (SNY) and the failures of SVB and SNY,” Moody’s said in a report.

— Alex Harring, Jeff Cox

The S&P 500 financials sector rallied more than 2% to lead the broader market higher, boosted by regional bank names that sold off sharply in the previous session. As of shortly after 10 a.m. ET, the sector was on pace for its biggest one-day gain since Nov. 10, when it surged 5.1%.

Communication services and energy also gained more than 2%, along with technology.

— Fred Imbert

Regional bank stocks are bouncing back sharply, after they were crushed in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure, but how sustainable the move is remains unclear.

First Republic was up nearly 50% in early trading Tuesday, while PacWest was up a similar amount. Charles Schwab was up more than 8%. The SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF was up about 9%.

“The market is right now in the thralls of handicapping whether the worst is over for the regional banks and the financial system,” said Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI head of equities, derivatives and quantitative research. “The day to day fluctuations around answering that questions are huge.”

The U.S. government Sunday approved plans to safeguard depositors and financial institutions affected by the collapse of SVB. Customers will have full access to their funds at SVB and also at Signature Bank, shut by New York regulators on Sunday.

 “What the Fed has done is an extraordinarily significant backstop to the financial system and depositor safety is guaranteed, which is in the long run a huge positive for the financials,: said Emanuel. “But in the short term, the patient is convalescing and it’s by no means a linear process.”

 Emanuel said volatility is high, and it’s too soon to declare all clear for the banks.

“What we’re looking for is when, how and who is the first to tap the new Fed facility that allows them to pledge high quality securities and receive par value,” he said. “And important will be the market’s reaction to when, who and how.”

–Patti Domm

Despite some speculation that recent bank failures might cause the Fed to hold off on interest rate hikes, market pricing indicates the central bank is still on track.

Consumer price index data released Tuesday morning was in line with market expectations, showing that the Fed still has work to do in its efforts to bring down inflation.

Traders were pricing in an 86.4% chance of a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) increase at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, up from levels earlier in the morning. Moreover, the implied level of the peak, or terminal, rate rose to just shy of 5%, according to CME Group data.

There were some murmurs, though, that the Fed should take a more cautious approach in light of the implosions at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

“To be clear, we think further hikes now are unnecessary; the lagged effect of the increases over the past year are enough to push inflation back to target, but Fed officials have been unwilling so far to accept this argument and until last week they appeared set on further hikes,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“Recent events make a strong case for a pause until May, but at this point that would be a pleasant surprise rather than our base case,” he added.

—Jeff Cox

American Express is showing “strength in uncertain times,” according to Wells Fargo, which is confident in the stock following an investor meeting with Chairman and CEO Stephen Squeri and Chief Financial Officer Jeff Campbell. 

“We came away with confidence in our Top Pick and believe they’re very much on track to hit ’23 rev guidance. We’re buyers of the stock on the pullback,” analyst Donald Fandetti wrote in a Tuesday note after the credit-card issuer fell almost 5% Monday.

He added that despite the “turmoil” in U.S. banking following the failure of SVB and Signature Bank that spurred a broad selloff in financial stocks, American Express was confident in its business outlook. 

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about his valuation here.

Shares of Meta Platforms rose more than 5% after the Facebook parent announced plans to layoff 10,000 employees in its second rounds of job cuts just months after it slashed more than 11,000 roles.

The company also said it will close 5,000 open positions.

The three major indexes were trading higher as the market opened Tuesday.

The Nasdaq Composite led the way, up 1.5% about 5 minutes after the opening bell. The S&P 500 advanced 1.3%, while the Dow gained 0.7%.

— Alex Harring

Core services inflation was slightly higher than expected, but a number within the number is what is concerning the bond market.

February’s consumer price index came in mostly as expected, with a 6% annual gain in headline inflation and 5.5% annual gain in the core, which excludes energy and food. CPI rose 0.4% on a monthly basis as expected, while core was up 0.5%, slightly higher than expected.

 “It’s kind of a hot number. Core services ex-shelter is up 0.43%. That’s the highest since September. This is a number that [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell watches. The annualized three-month number is 4.4%. That’s not exactly close to 2%,” said Michael Schumacher of Wells Fargo. The Fed’s target for core inflation is 2%.

 “I think this pretty much seals the deal for a 25 basis point hike next week. There’s no reason in my view why they should be putting that off and there’s no reason to go 50,” said Jefferies money market economist Tom Simons. “Powell was talking about his concerns about core services ex-housing before Congress and in January, and this shows no relief from that.”  He said the number included a sharp 6.4% month-over-month in airfares, which is not likely to be repeated.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, said the odds of a quarter point rate hike rose in the futures market to 84% after the 8:30 a.m. ET CPI report. The odds for a 25 basis point hike were about 64% on Monday.

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank have created concerns of contagion around the banking industry, and because of that some economists no longer expect a rate hike when the Fed meets next week.

–Patti Domm

The closely followed CPI reading was released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here’s how the three major futures indexes moved in the 30 minutes leading up to and following the report:

These companies are making headlines before the bell:

• First Republic Bank — The San Francisco-based bank stock jumped 45% after closing down 61.8% on Monday. First Republic shares rose amid a broader rebound in regional bank stocks. Western Alliance Bancorp and KeyCorp climbed 33% and 16%, respectively. Separately, Western Alliance rose after Wells Fargo reiterated its overweight rating on the stock, saying the risk/reward is attractive for the stock.
• Uber, Lyft, Doordash — Shares of ride-sharing companies Uber and Lyft, and order delivery firm Doordash, rose more than 5% each after a California appeals court said the companies can continue to treat their drivers as independent contractors. That overturned a lower court decision that prevented them from doing so.

Read on for more movers here.

— Sarah Min

The consumer price index rose 0.4% in February from the prior month, matching a Dow Jones estimate. The year-over-year increase of 6% was also in line with expectations.

— Fred Imbert

The crisis surrounding Silicon Valley Bank created a historic trading day for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY), according to Strategas ETF strategist Todd Sohn.

“At a high level, ETFs are used for 1) long-term asset allocation due to their low-cost exposure and tax efficiency as well as 2) the ability to quickly express short-term market views (e.g. long/short sectors, hedging positions, etc.). The past few days’ events and price action have reinforced the latter… on Friday, the largest ETF (SPY) traded north of $72 Bn shares. That’s a 99th percentile reading historically, and helpful to determine how much anxiety the broader market has towards the macro backdrop,” Sohn said in a note to clients.

The ETF traded roughly 182 million shares on Friday, and then another 158 million on Monday.

— Jesse Pound

The bank run that brought down Silicon Valley Bank does not appear to have spread to other banks, according to Raymond James analyst Daniel Tamayo.

Tamayo said in a note to clients on Tuesday that discussions with bank managers in recent days suggested that fears of widespread withdrawals appear to be overblown.

“Deposit outflows since the onset of the crisis on Wednesday evening beginning with SVB’s announcement of a securities sale and common equity raise have been minimal, if any,” the note said. “This is not to say banks have not seen outflows in 1Q, which we expect at many/most of the banks we cover given the continued decline in the money supply; however, outflows did not accelerate during the last few days and, in fact, some banks have seen net inflows given movement in deposits from SVB and Signature Bank.”

— Jesse Pound

February’s index of small business optimism came in ahead of expectations and marked an improvement from last month, but still showed less optimism among business owners than seen historically, according to data released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business.

The Small Business Index, which is based on 10 survey indicators, came in at 90.9 for the month of February. That’s higher than the 90 expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. It’s also higher than the 90.3 seen in January.

In other words, small businesses were more optimistic about business conditions than economists expected them to be for this month and more optimistic than they were a month ago.

Still, the monthly reading was below the 49-year average of 98. This means that while optimism among small business owners is growing, it’s still below where it has typically been over the last nearly half-century.

“Small business owners remain doubtful that business conditions will get better in the coming months,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a statement on the February results. “They continue to struggle with historic inflation and labor shortages that are holding back growth. Despite their economic challenges, owners are working hard to create new jobs to strengthen the economy and their firms.”

Other findings of the survey show a historically high share of small business owners are still struggling to fill job openings. That reflects the stubbornly hot labor market in recent months despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy through interest rate hikes.

— Alex Harring

In an interview with The Financial Times, Citadel’s Ken Griffin criticized the U.S. government’s backstop of Silicon Valley Bank depositors.

“The U.S. is supposed to be a capitalist economy, and that’s breaking down before our eyes,” Griffin, the founder of hedge fund giant Citadel, told the FT. “There’s been a loss of financial discipline with the government bailing out depositors in full.”

— Fred Imbert

United Airlines slashed its first-quarter guidance and now expects to lose between 60 cents per share and $1 per share. The airline previously guided for a profit per share of 50 cents to $1.

United said it is “observing new seasonal demand patterns, with lower-demand months such as January and February 2023 growing less than higher-demand months.”

Shares of United dropped 6% in the premarket.

Elsewhere, Delta reaffirmed its first-quarter earnings guidance.

— Fred Imbert

Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo said he’s sticking with high overweight rating on PNC Financial following meetings with top bank executives.

“First, funding seems strong,” Mayo wrote. “We expect PNC to gain deposits in both consumer and commercial and maintain sticky deposits. PNC’s average client deposit size ($21K) is 2-4% the size of recent failed banks. Second, pricing may ease incrementally on loans and/or deposits. Third, prior investments for growth have more ways to pay off in this environment, in our view.”

PNC shares rose more than 4% in the premarket. However, the stock is down more than 17% this month amid the banking sector rout.

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

European equity markets opened cautiously higher Tuesday as the aftershocks from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse continue to ripple through financial markets.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up 0.2% at the start of trade, with sectors and major bourses a spread of modest gains and losses. The banking sector led losses with a 0.7% drop, following on from a tumultuous day for bank stocks Monday. Utilities and tech stocks led gains and were up 0.7%.

— Hannah Ward-Glenton

European markets are heading for a higher open Tuesday even as the aftershocks from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse continue to ripple through financial markets.

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 13 points higher at 7,566, Germany’s DAX 36 points higher at 15,024, France’s CAC up 22 points at 7,036 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 52 points at 26,280, according to data from IG.

Earnings from VW, Circle and Porsche are expected, as are U.K. unemployment figures for January.

— Holly Ellyatt

The selloff in bank stocks is creating some opportunities for investors looking to scoop up shares, according to investor Bonawyn Eison.

Despite the pullback in banking shares Monday, the CNBC contributor called Fifth Third and KeyBank, owned by KeyCorp, some of his top picks and names he views as “operationally intact.”

“Fifth third is kind of like a super regional,” he told CNBC “Fast Money” on Monday. “None of them have the risk of contagion — I mean, this is overblown, but I don’t think from an operational standpoint, it has that risk.”

— Samantha Subin

Gitlab shares plunged 31% after the open source software firm issued a softer-than-expected outlook. It posted fiscal-year 2024 revenue guidance of $529 million to $533 million in 2023, lower than expectations of $586.4 million, according to Refinitiv.

Otherwise, the firm reported a beat on the top and bottom lines in its fourth quarter results, per Refinitiv.

Even with its roughly 15% rally on Monday, Bitcoin has more room to run, according to Carter Worth of Worth Charting.

“There’s a bit more upside,” the technical analyst told CNBC “Fast Money” on Monday, noting that he sees Bitcoin going to, or slightly above the $28,000 level.

“Downtrend line’s clear, you can see it there, we moved above it, we checked back to it, and we ricocheted, so a little bit more but not a lot more,” he said.

Bitcoin on Monday topped the $24,000 level, last trading 14.7% higher at $24,191.75.

— Samantha Subin

Investors will be closely watching the February consumer price index that’s due out Tuesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting a rise of 0.4% last month. That’s down from a 0.5% increase the prior month.

— Sarah Min

First Republic Bank shares jumped roughly 17% in extended trading Monday, after closing down 61.8% amid broader concerns of contagion in bank stocks following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Other bank stocks rebounded as well. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF rose 1.1% in extended trading. KeyCorp shares added 5.8%.

U.S. stock futures rose on Monday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a fifth day of losses. Traders also looked ahead to a key inflation report due Tuesday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 78 points, or 0.24%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2% and 0.15%, respectively.

— Sarah Min