The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 50 basis points, an outcome the market had assigned a 37% probability just before the announcement. As a result, the EUR/USD initially climbed but encountered resistance near the 1.0612 area, which was identified as a modest resistance target (see previous post). The upward momentum then subsided, causing the price to reverse and test its 100-day moving average of 1.0554 (lower blue step line on the chart above). The low price dipped just below this level at 1.0550 before bouncing back.
Amid these fluctuations, a key swing area remains between at 1.0573 to 1.0585. Currently, the price is hovering within this range as the market reacts to post-decision volatility. Market participants now await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference (starting at 9:45 AM ET), during which she will address questions from journalists. As a result, traders should anticipate heightened volatility throughout this event.
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